Logistics Market Update – Transpacific Ocean Rates Trend & Market Information

Carriers continue to hold most of the January 1 GRI, with current spot levels now around:

• USWC: ~$3,100
• USEC: ~$4,000
• Gulf: ~$4,100

However, booking momentum has started to slow this week, signaling potential short-term rate softening. On the USEC, despite multiple blank sailings scheduled for early January, major carriers including CMA, ZIM, and YML are actively seeking volume support. With overcapacity still in play and competition increasing, the next two weeks will be a key test for carriers trying to defend recent GRI gains.

Looking Ahead: Lunar New Year Impact

While a near-term market correction is possible, spot rates could firm up again in the second half of January as shippers move cargo ahead of Lunar New Year.

Most carriers are expected to maintain current capacity through Chinese New Year, then introduce additional blank sailings—or temporarily suspend services—starting around Week 7, just ahead of the holiday.

Capacity Management Moves

Carriers are also adjusting capacity by deploying smaller vessels on Transpacific lanes:

• CMA CGM plans to downsize its PRX service (PSW from Haiphong and South China) from vessels averaging ~11,000 TEUs to about ~7,000 TEUs.
• MSC is preparing similar downsizing actions, beginning with its standalone services.

MSC remains one of the most aggressive carriers in responding to market shifts—adding capacity quickly when demand rises and pulling back just as fast when conditions soften.

Service Reliability in Focus

Schedule reliability continues to be challenged by increased delays, vessel bunching, and blank sailings, along with operational inefficiencies at origin and transshipment ports.

With an average on-time performance near 35%, managing delivery expectations remains difficult. Carriers are prioritizing short-term flexibility over long-term service stability, frequently shifting vessels between trade lanes to match immediate demand.

Network Changes on the Horizon

As trade flows continue to evolve, further adjustments to service networks may emerge in 2026:

• Core hubs such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Yantian are expected to retain full direct services to the USWC, PNW, USEC, and Gulf.
• Secondary ports, including Qingdao, Tianjin Xingang, and Xiamen, may see fewer direct calls and rely more on feeder connections via major hub ports.

India–US Ocean Market Update

• The market remains stable in early January, despite continued GRI pressure from carriers.
• Space is generally available to both USWC and USEC, though selective blank sailings and tighter capacity controls—particularly by carriers like ONE—could cause intermittent tightening, especially on USEC routes.
• Advance bookings are recommended for time-sensitive shipments.
• Kolkata: Ongoing port congestion continues to affect vessel turnaround and empty container repositioning, leading to intermittent shortages of 40’ HC equipment.

For further information about how to update your logistics program to meet the changes in trade, please reach out to us at LogiWorld Corporation.