Logistics Market Update – Transpacific Ocean Rates Trend & Market Information

After peaking just before the New Year, transpacific spot rates have corrected quickly over the past few weeks. Prices have now slipped back to late-December levels, confirming that the January 1 and January 15 GRIs did not hold.

Demand ahead of Chinese New Year has also come in softer than expected. Many shippers advanced production into December to avoid possible Lunar New Year rate hikes, and Chinese factories were able to handle this without strain due to ample available capacity.

With carriers having already added extra space ahead of the holiday, a February 1 GRI looks unlikely. Current rate levels are expected to remain in place through at least February 14.

Indicative Ocean Rate Benchmarks

Weeks 04–05 (January)

Far East → US & Canada West Coast

• Market: $2,200–2,300 / 40’
• Bullet: $1,900–2,100 / 40’

Far East → US & Canada East Coast

• Market: $3,000-$3100 / 40’
• Bullet: $2,700–2,900 / 40’

Far East → US Gulf Coast

• Market: $3,300–3,400 / 40’
• Bullet: $2,900- $3100 / 40’

Far East → Chicago & Major IPIs

• Market: $4,000–4,200 / 40’

Capacity Update: Southeast Asia in Focus

Carriers continue shifting capacity toward Southeast Asia, adding more direct calls from Cai Mep, Haiphong, and Laem Chabang to US West Coast and US East Coast.  The trend follows the movement of production from many China factories into these SE Asia countries.

Premier Alliance (ONE / HMM / Yang Ming)

• New PSW service launching April 2026: VSE – Vietnam Shuttle Express Singapore → Cai Mep → Haiphong → Los Angeles
• EC4 Gulf service to drop Taiwan & Hong Kong calls and add Cai Mep.

Maersk TP6 / Hapag-Lloyd WS1

• Nansha removed from rotation
• Laem Chabang added as a direct call
• First call: Maersk Alfirk V.609E – ETA March 1, 2026
• Transit to Los Angeles: 26 days

Southeast Asia Port Congestion Watch

• Malaysia – Port Klang: Severe congestion continues; ~4-day average waiting time despite fewer anchored vessels
• Vietnam: Cat Lai: 2-day delays Cai Mep: Deteriorated to 2-day waits
• Indonesia – Semarang: 2–3 day delays with ports operating at over-capacity
• Philippines – Manila: Delays worsened to 3+ days with 10+ vessels waiting in queue

India–USA Ocean Update

• Space: Generally open to US West Coast & US East Coast
• Rates: Stable for now
• Outlook: GRIs being announced, but ample capacity and soft demand make them hard to sustain

Market Alert – Maersk India–USEC Routing Update

Maersk is preparing to reinstate the Red Sea/Suez Canal routing on its India–US East Coast service following two successful trial transits, with regular sailings expected to resume from India in late January or early February. While not officially confirmed, market sources indicate the shift is close to permanent, returning the service to a significantly shorter transit compared with the Cape of Good Hope route. Forwarders in India report Maersk has also begun accepting grape cargo bookings to Europe via Suez, offering an estimated six-day transit time improvement, a key advantage for perishables. The move is seen as a strategic step to regain time-sensitive volumes and strengthen Maersk’s position in the competitive Indian export market.

China–USA Air Freight Snapshot

• Rates rebounded from Week 3 after a brief early-January dip
• East China remains stronger, supported by high-tech and automotive cargo
• Week 4 marks a critical pre-Lunar New Year shipping window, with most demand being driven by short-term replenishment needs
• Many factories will begin closing in late January to early February running up to the Chinese New Year holidays

Asia–USA Air Market Highlights

• Southeast Asia volumes normalized; Hong Kong remains soft
• No strong pre-CNY peak expected in Hong Kong as factories close from early February
• E-commerce still accounts for 50%+ of Hong Kong exports
• Recent Greenland tariff headlines have no material impact on SE Asia air markets

For further information about how to update your logistics program to meet the changes in trade, please reach out to us at LogiWorld Corporation.