At LogiWorld, our priority is to keep you informed with clear, actionable updates so you can anticipate challenges, protect your supply chain, and make confident logistics decisions with our logistics market update. As we move into October, the global freight market continues to face headwinds across ocean and air. From sluggish transpacific volumes and sliding spot rates to congestion in South China and capacity constraints out of India, shippers are navigating a complex and rapidly shifting landscape.
Transpacific Market Update
The transpacific trade lane is still struggling to find its footing. Even ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday, volumes haven’t shown much of a rebound. Space remains wide open across most services, except for a few Express strings catering to the fast-paced e-commerce segment.
Spot rates to the USWC, USEC, and Canada slid a bit further this past week. Carriers have already published their October first-half rate levels, and some lanes are now dipping below breakeven. Clearly, carriers are putting market share ahead of profitability. With demand staying soft, we don’t expect any GRI to stick for October 15.
Adding to the pressure, President Trump announced a new 25% tariff on wooden cabinets, vanities, and upholstered furniture starting October 14. Since furniture imports make up about 10% of transpacific volumes, this will weigh heavily on overall trade.
October Import Ocean Rate
| Far East | US/Canada West Coast | $1,400–1,550 |
| Far East | US/Canada East Coast | $2,300–2,450 |
| Far East | US Gulf Coast | Avg. $2,400- 2,600 |
| Far East | Chicago via USWC | $3,800– 3,975 |
| Far East | Toronto/Montreal | $3,500–3,700 |
Typhoon Ragasa
Severe weather in South China has caused major port congestion and vessel delays across Guangdong and Fujian, including Yantian, Shekou, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Nansha, and other PRD ports. Operations have resumed gradually since September 25, but empty container and trucking shortages are adding to the bottlenecks. With Golden Week overlapping the disruptions, congestion could linger for another week before easing.
Airfreight Update
The U.S.–China lane has cooled dramatically. Since the U.S. tariffs and China’s removal of the de minimis exemption back in May, volumes dropped 40% by July. Taiwan and Vietnam, meanwhile, have surged—up 119% and 93% respectively—adding hundreds of freighter flights to keep up with demand. India even overtook China as the top smartphone exporter to the U.S.
Looking at the longer term, the global widebody freighter fleet isn’t expanding fast enough to match demand. With only 30 net aircraft expected to join service over the next five years, supply constraints may limit growth even as demand is forecast to climb 4% annually.
China Air Market Recap
- Pre-Holiday Surge: Typhoon backlogs and stocking for overseas markets pushed volumes higher from 9/29–10/3.
- Golden Week Slowdown: By 10/4–10/5, factory shutdowns cut volumes down to 30% of normal, with e-commerce nearly at a standstill.
- Year-over-Year Declines: Compared to last year’s Golden Week, hi-tech cargo fell 12%, e-commerce down 20–30%, and general cargo down 20%.
- Cancellations: Several PVG–US flights were cut, shifting urgent shipments to air, but USWC demand remains muted.
Looking ahead, the end of the U.S. tariff deferral period and lingering uncertainty are keeping peak season expectations low.
India Ocean & Air Market Update
- Space Constraints: Ocean vessel capacity ex-Indian Subcontinent is still extremely tight. Carriers are carefully rationing space, and blank sailings have now been extended into late October. Rates remain firm, with spot levels creeping up another 2–3% week over week on both EU and US trades.
- Transshipment Delays: Congestion at key hubs—Singapore, Port Klang, and Colombo—continues to cause headaches. Feeder delays are running 6–9 days on EU/US routings, and vessel bunching is leading to frequent missed connections.
- US Lanes: Traffic to the USEC and USWC remains under strain. Feeder delays out of Singapore and Colombo are stretching transits to 45–50 days. For time-sensitive cargo, higher priced premium space is still the only reliable option.
- Export Demand: Exports remain strong across garments, pharma, semiconductors, and electronics, particularly out of Bombay, Delhi, Madras, Dacca, and Colombo.
- Air Capacity: Both freighter and belly space on passenger fights are fully booked. Carriers are giving priority to long-term contract commitments, leaving very little room for spot market cargo.
- Rates: Market levels pushed up another 3–5% week over week on India/ Subcontinent–EU and India/ Subcontinent –US lanes. Urgent shipments continue to require a premium rate uplift.
Whether you’re managing imports from Asia, navigating new tariff risks, or securing premium space for urgent shipments, staying proactive is critical. The LogiWorld team is here to provide expert guidance, capacity solutions, and hands-on support to keep your cargo moving.
Contact us today to discuss your upcoming shipments and explore how we can strengthen your logistics strategy for Q4 and beyond!
