October is shaping up to be a pivotal month for global shipping, keep reading to learn more about the end of month logistics market update. From the transpacific surge in bookings ahead of potential U.S. tariffs to China’s new retaliatory port fees, carriers and shippers alike are navigating a rapidly changing landscape. Ocean rates are temporarily strong, airfreight demand is climbing, and Southeast Asia is seeing record volumes—all against a backdrop of softening consumer demand in the U.S. and looming peak-season pressures. Understanding these dynamics is key to keeping your supply chain agile and cost-effective.
Transpacific Market Update
Carriers are holding steady on October 15th rates helped by a rush of bookings ahead of the potential 100% U.S. tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1st. Another $1,000 per 40’ container General Rate Increase (GRI) is planned for early November, but it remains to be seen if it will stick.
The short-term rate strength is fueled by front-loaded cargo, reduced capacity, and service cuts. Several U.S.-flagged ships are now skipping Chinese ports to avoid new retaliatory port fees imposed by China. Together, these moves have created a temporary seller’s market but it’s unlikely to last long.
Demand remains soft, and the IMF has revised forecasts upward after stronger-than-expected front-loading earlier in the year, though that momentum is fading fast. We’re seeing signs of weakening U.S. consumer demand, as higher import costs begin to flow through to retail prices. Container volumes are expected to ease through December, with growth projected to slow sharply to just 2.3% in 2026.
Despite carriers’ efforts, the rate rally may be short-lived. A moderate bump of $400–$500 per 40’ container could still happen in early November, but rates are expected to slip again by mid-month.
Tip: For non-urgent shipments, it may be smart to delay bookings a few days after November 1st to avoid the temporary GRI. But for early November ETDs, expect possible delivery delays and higher surcharges if containers hit terminals after October 31.
China’s Retaliatory Port Fees
China’s new port fees took effect on October 14th, targeting U.S.-flagged vessels. Chinese-built ships are exempt, and the 25% U.S. ownership rule is being loosely applied. Matson has been the first hit, reportedly paying around $1.7 million for its Shanghai call—about $350 per 40’ container.
Meanwhile, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have opted to skip Ningbo for now, rerouting cargo via South Korea. The situation remains fluid as both countries await clarity on final ownership thresholds. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet during an upcoming trade summit, which may bring more direction.
China Airfreight Market
The air market is buzzing, driven by a mix of tariff worries, ocean shipping delays, and heavy pre-holiday e-commerce activity. Rates continued climbing in Week 42, boosted by strong demand from Apple, Tesla, and e-cigarette shipments.
With blank sailings at post-pandemic highs, some shippers are shifting from sea to air. Rates ex-China to the U.S. are now hovering around $6.00–$6.50/kg, and capacity remains tight.
Southeast Asia Airfreight
Southeast Asia’s airfreight market is heating up as well—volumes are up 25–30% from Q3, led by e-commerce, electronics, and solar products from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
With Thanksgiving around the corner, space is tight, and charter demand is strong, with 747 charters topping $800K. Expect a super peak in Q4, particularly out of Vietnam and Thailand.
Air Industry Highlights
- Xeneta projects airfreight rates will ease in 2026 as capacity growth overtakes demand.
- Reciprocal port fees and tariff threats pushed ocean rates up $700–$900/FEU and airfreight up to $6.50/kg.
- A fire at Dhaka Airport caused major cargo losses and flight disruptions.
- A Boeing 747 freighter incident at Hong Kong Airport led to two reported fatalities—investigations are underway.
- Fly Meta and Air Atlanta are launching two 777-300F freighters for a China–Europe cargo bridge beginning later this year.
- Cathay Cargo introduced real-time customs clearance, improving visibility and transit times.
Transatlantic Logistics Market Update
Although the tariff chaos that plagued the Europe/ U.S. trade has settled down and ocean volumes have remained muted for the last few months, North European shippers are still facing challenges. Strike actions are disrupting ocean operations at two of Europe’s main hubs. Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges ports are struggling with container lashing companies and FNV Havens dockworkers unions who are disrupting normal operations to protest current wages and working conditions. The resulting reduced handling capacity has created port and rail congestion as well as rolled ocean shipments. To make matters worse, ocean carriers are starting to blank sailings in those ports to avoid port and terminal delays.
With rates and capacity shifting daily, now is the time to plan strategically for both ocean and air shipments. Monitor deadlines, consider non-urgent bookings for early November, and stay informed on port disruptions in Europe. For tailored guidance on navigating these market changes and optimizing your shipping strategy, contact our LogiWorld experts today—we’re here to help you move smarter, faster, and more efficiently.
