Transpacific Market Update — Mid-November Overview

Ocean Freight Trends

Keep reading to check out our latest LogiWorld logistics market update! Freight rates on the Transpacific have taken a sharp dive since November 1. West Coast (USWC) rates have slipped from around $3,200 down to as low as $1900 per 40’ container, while East Coast (USEC) rates have eased further to $2,600–$2,700 per 40’ from China and Southeast Asia base ports.

Carriers are now actively seeking volume to fill vessels and are offering discounts—especially for larger shipments. The market has clearly entered its slack season, although most carriers remain hesitant to reduce capacity. After Week 47, blank sailings to both coasts are expected to taper off, and those last-minute void sailing announcements we saw earlier have started to fade.

According to Sea-Intelligence, container volumes to and from North America have decreased 3.1% year-on-year during the first six months of the trade war, while global container growth elsewhere hit 7.3%. October saw another sharp decline in shipments from the Far East to the U.S., down 7.2% YOY following a 10% drop in September.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) also reported that U.S. retailers expect double-digit declines in imports through the rest of 2025 and into Q1 2026. It’s still too early to see the full impact of the new trade agreements between the U.S. and countries such as China, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia. Still, the recent softening in spot rates signals that the Transpacific market remains weak.

On a positive note, China and the U.S. have agreed to suspend reciprocal port fees for one year starting November 10. The move has been welcomed by shipping lines, offering a bit more stability and paving the way for carriers to rebalance capacity toward the fast-growing Southeast Asia region.

China’s share of Transpacific volumes is down 6.5% year-to-date, while Southeast Asia has gained roughly 23%, driven by strong exports from Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. Carriers are expected to increase direct services and port calls in the region next year, with Vietnam likely to benefit most from new express service launches.

Current Ocean Rate Benchmarks (Week 46–47)

Lane Market Rate (USD per 40’ container)

• Far East → US/Canada West Coast 1,950 – 2,150
• Far East → US/Canada East Coast 2,700 – 2,800
• Far East → US Gulf Coast 2,650 – 2,750
• Far East → Chicago via USWC 4,200 – 4,400 (PSW) / 3,850 – 3,950 (via PNW)
• Far East → Toronto / Montreal 4,250 – 4,350

Rates are expected to remain at these levels through the end of November.

Southeast Asia Air Market Snapshot

Airfreight demand across Southeast Asia remains strong, especially out of Hong Kong where e-commerce shipments from major platforms like Shein, PDD, TikTok, and GD continue to push volumes ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving season. Space is tight, and rates have been climbing week by week.

Average Airfreight Rates (per kg):

• To USWC: Direct $7.20–$7.50 / Deferred $6.80–$7.20
• To USEC: Direct $8.20–$8.50 / Deferred $7.50–$7.80

The strong Q4 demand is being fueled by solar cell exports and e-commerce cargo from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

Rates across Vietnam/Thailand/Malaysia/Indonesia remain closely aligned and are holding firm at these levels.

U.S. Intermodal – Union Pacific & Norfolk Southern Rail Merger

The UP and NS railroads have announced a potential merger that would ultimately connect the West Coast and East Coast with a single rail line service. The deal would involve the UP acquiring the NS rail and would potentially reduce rail transit times by eliminating mid-West interchange delays. The services would span over 50,000 miles over 43 states and link approximately 100 U.S. ports. The merger is projected to close by early 2027, subject to U.S. regulatory approval.

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