Logistics Market Update – Transpacific Ocean Rates Trend & Market Information
The Transpacific rates continued their decline for the fourth consecutive week and have lost all gains from the general rate increase in the second half of October. Despite the softening freight market, carriers are reluctant to withdraw capacity, which has the transpacific spot rates under high downward pressure. There is a critical shift in the supply-demand balance in the current slack season, and demand is not expected to come back before the end of December or even the 2026 New Year.
Although carriers have announced a GRI and are going to push up US West Coast and US East Coast rates for the second half of December, the market sentiment is not supportive. Additionally, some carriers have confirmed they will extend current rates till December 14th, which is a signal of a soft market.
We may anticipate a continued “normalization” of the Transpacific market, with less active demand, and with increased capacity, and with the potential return of ships to the Suez Canal route as Houthi hostilities have abated.
Looking Ahead
Heading to 2026, the container shipping industry is bracing for a challenging year as new vessels boost capacity while demand slows. Given the massive wave of newly built ships, a ‘structural’ tonnage oversupply is very likely to appear in the coming years. Further, the tonnage that is currently absorbed by Cape of Good Hope diversions could be set free by a large-scale return to Red Sea – Suez Canal routings. Of course, this shift will occur gradually, and carriers will be cautious of switching, since that would require major network revamps for carriers and shipping alliances, such as Gemini, Premier, and OCEAN. In the short term, though, carriers have little incentive to return until they have more certainty in the safety and reliability of the Red Sea trade route.
Carriers Adjust to Trade Lane Shifts
As the migration of manufacturing continues to shift from China down into Southeast Asia, ocean carriers are following suit with service changes. As an example, MSC has started a new feeder service connecting Sihanoukville, Cambodia, to both the Transpacific and Latin American destinations via the port of Ningbo in China.
The new feeder service increases space capacity in Cambodia, avoids transshipment congestion in Singapore (where the normal waiting time is around 10 days), and provides customers with more routing/service options.
The new feeder can connect MSC US West Coast services and US East Coast with the transit time from Sihanoukville to Ningbo of just 7 days.
India-US Ocean Market Update
Carriers are continuing capacity management and schedule adjustments to stabilize the India to USA market after November’s rate declines. These actions are creating intermittent short-term tightness on select strings. However, overall capacity availability remains reasonable versus peak season extremes. Ocean rates on this trade route can be very volatile, so we urge you to check market rates every week.
US West Coast (USWC): Space is typically open but vulnerable to temporary tightening when carriers omit transshipment calls or blank sailings. Omitted calls from Nhava Sheva and Mundra that could push cargo to earlier or later sailings.
US East Coast (USEC): Carriers are applying GRIs and fewer sailings on some strings, so last-minute space squeezes are possible if blank sailings cluster in any single week.
Port congestion: Live analytics and recent port reports show average wait times at Mundra and Nhava Sheva are under one day currently, but localized congestion or terminal yard delays can occur with weather or blank-sailing clusters.
Weather: There are currently no industry-wide major weather alerts for Indian west coast ports, but localized heavy weather and monsoon remnants have previously affected Mundra container yards. It is strongly urged to keep contingency plans ready for heavy rain or cyclone advisories.
China Air Market Overview
Black Friday promotions were advanced to Tuesday and Wednesday of Week 48, overlapping with Christmas stocking. E-commerce cargo accounted for more than 60% of total shipments, showing low price sensitivity and helping to sustain higher freight rates.
The 90-day phased tariff reduction agreement between China and the US, though temporary, stimulated transpacific trade demand. Enterprise rush shipments continued through year-end, and early stocking by US retailers further boosted air freight demand.
Continuous shipments of special goods such as aluminum coils and e-cigarettes drove up market rates on East US routes, while e-commerce shipments and Hi-Tech products formed the core demand base.
Expansion of air freight capacity was constrained by air rights and slot resources, making it difficult to add temporary flights. Multiple cancellations in Week 47 worsened the shortage. Last, part of the capacity of China’s three major airlines was diverted to Southeast Asia instead of returning to China routes.
Southeast Asia Air Market Overview
For the Hong Kong airfreight market, the USA market softened as this week is the Thanksgiving holiday, resulting in a short business week. European space tightened due to the e-commerce trade. Multiple large electronic goods manufacturers switched the capacity from charter flights to commercial flights as the charter rates are too high.
For the SEA airfreight market, the overall space demand is still quite strong and sustained. Space remains critical while the solar cell and e-commerce products continue to be sourced from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia & Indonesia. Space is extremely tight coming from Vietnam and Thailand, where we see a “super peak” in Q4.
For further information about how to update your logistics program to meet the changes in trade, please reach out to our team at LogiWorld Corporation.
