Logistics Market Update – Transpacific Ocean Rates Trend & Market Information

Ocean Freight – Transpacific

Following the unsuccessful General Rate Increase earlier this month, carriers have maintained rate increases effective as of December 15th, lifting US West Coast spot rates to approximately $2,100 – $2300 per 40’. With a higher number of blank sailings scheduled toward the end of December, carriers appear better positioned to sustain these levels than in prior attempts.

Despite this manipulation, market sentiment remains cautious. Many shippers continue to wait for potential softening before committing to booking shipments. On the US East Coast, December capacity has been less affected by blank sailings, and carriers remain open to offering bullet rates for volume cargo.

Looking into January, conditions may shift. Carriers report improved volume forecasts from U.S. importers ahead of Chinese New Year (mid-February). To support a planned $1,000/40’ GRI effective January 1st, additional USEC blank sailings have already been announced for early January.

The Asia–US West Coast trade remains highly volatile. Carriers are deploying vessels with short-term flexibility rather than fixed long-term rotations. If anticipated January demand does not materialize, vessels may be quickly redeployed to other trades, creating the risk of rapid swings between overcapacity and tight space.

Ocean Rate Benchmarks (2nd Half of December)

• Far East → US & Canada West Coast: ~ $2,100 – $2300/ 40’
• Far East → US & Canada East Coast: ~ $2,950- $3100/ 40’
• Far East → US Gulf Coast: ~ $3,000 – $3200/ 40’
• Far East → Chicago (via USWC): ~ $4200 – $4500/ 40’

Carrier Network Update – Premier Alliance (2026)

Premier Alliance carriers ONE, YML, and HMM have announced their 2026 service network, adding two new USWC services that will increase Pacific Southwest capacity by approximately 20%.  These services are scheduled to commence in April 2026. The alliance has confirmed it will continue routing via the Cape of Good Hope, with no commitment yet to return to the Suez Canal.

Air Freight – China Market Overview

• Week 50 marked the final pre-Christmas peak, with volumes and rates continuing to rise, particularly out of East China.
• Week 51 is expected to be a turning point: rates should remain firm early in the week before easing in the latter half.
• Cross-border B2C e-commerce demand is expected to provide underlying support and limit sharp rate declines.

Industry Highlights

• IATA forecasts 2.4% YoY growth in air cargo volumes in 2026, with revenues up 2.1% YoY, reflecting continued resilience in the sector despite global trade shifts.

Asia Air Freight – Market Conditions

Hong Kong

• E-commerce volumes to the US and Europe declined ~20% week-on-week, with a further 50% drop expected due to the extended Christmas holiday.
• Rates are easing and expected to soften further next week, with more spot pricing applied.

Indicative Rate Outlook (Next Week):

• USWC: $6.50– 6.90/kg (direct), $5.80 –6.30/kg (deferred)
• USEC:  $7.30 –7.50/kg (direct), $6.00 –6.45/kg (deferred)

Southeast Asia

• Volumes declined ~10% this week, with an additional 30% decrease expected next week due to the holiday period.
• Rates are trending lower across the region, with Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia broadly aligned at similar market levels.

For further information about how to update your logistics program to meet the changes in trade, please reach out to us at LogiWorld Corporation.