For this week’s logistics market update, Transpacific ocean rates are showing early signs of easing after carriers withdrew planned July rate increases, while port congestion across China and Asia has climbed to levels not seen since 2022. Ocean carriers are tightening booking requirements and space availability out of India, and air cargo capacity out of Asia remains constrained by strong AI data center-related equipment demand.
Ocean Freight – Transpacific Rate Trends & Market Conditions
- Carriers rolled back their planned July GRIs last week, with rate cuts from the Gemini alliance (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) on the market; the July 1 GRI now looks like a modest increase over late-June rates, and most carriers have extended current rates through July 31.
- Beginning July 25, at least one major carrier will implement new Panama Canal-related surcharges and revised weight restrictions.
- Another GRI round is planned for August 1, but with demand beginning to soften and additional loader capacity easing space constraints, the current rate cycle may be nearing a peak. Carriers remain ready to push new increases if volumes or capacity tighten again.
- Asia-Europe and Mediterranean lanes remain up year-to-date but rising more moderately than the Transpacific.
- Cancelled sailings have eased overall, though the Transpacific still accounts for most remaining ones, and rollover risk stays elevated.
Port Congestion in China & Asia – Volume Increase & Typhoon
Higher cargo volumes, combined with dense fog and typhoon activity, have pushed port congestion across China and Asia to levels not seen since the COVID-era disruptions of 2022. Blank sailings, omitted port calls, feeder delays, and container rollovers continue to impact schedule reliability.
Ocean Freight – India Export Market
Ocean carriers are tightening booking requirements as demand from India to the U.S. and Europe rebounds for the first time in several months. Increased shipping volumes to the U.S. are also driving an increase in U.S. East Coast spot rates.
- Multiple major carriers have significantly increased cancellation and rollover penalties, some as much as three times previous rates, and have shifted from per-booking fees to per-container charges, making multi-container shipments more expensive.
- Several carriers have suspended space and equipment guarantees on spot bookings in favor of higher-yield or contract cargo, and premier India-U.S. East Coast/North Europe services are reported to be booked through late August already.
Air Freight Market
Air cargo demand remains increased out of Asia, driven largely by AI-related data center components competing with e-commerce shipments for limited wide-body freighter capacity.
- Freighter capacity out of Vietnam grew significantly in the first half of the year, with more moderate gains from Thailand and Taiwan.
- After the EU removed its duty-free import threshold on July 1, Hong Kong-Europe e-commerce tonnage and freighter capacity both declined the following week, while Taiwan-Europe volume has risen on strong AI-related equipment shipments.
Customs Update: IEEPA Tariff Refunds Processed in CAPE
Customs Border Protection (CBP) reported that since the launch of CAPE on April 20th, roughly 24.4 million IEEPA duty entries have been processed through the Consolidated Administration and CAPE system.
Additionally, as of June 29th, certain unliquidated entries flagged for reconciliation can be included on a CAPE declaration so IEEPA duties can be refunded at a later reconciliation.
Plan Ahead
With Transpacific rates in transition, Asia port congestion elevated, India capacity tightening, and air cargo constrained, early planning and flexibility remain key across all modes of transportation. LogiWorld continues to advise three-plus weeks of lead time into fall/holiday peak season.
If you have upcoming import or export shipments, our team can help you secure space, navigate the complex market changes, and avoid potential delays.
