Market Updates

For this week’s logistics market update, the transpacific market continues to tighten, with carriers pushing through rapid rate increases and space remaining extremely limited across most trade lanes. Freight rates are moving up faster than expected, with carriers adjusting pricing on a daily basis. Carriers are aggressively closing pricing gaps and accelerating increases across the market.

For this week’s logistics market update, transpacific market is heading into May with a mix of rising costs, tight capacity, and ongoing uncertainty tied to fuel prices and global events. There are rapid increases in fuel prices are pushing carriers to introduce new surcharges, and it’s starting to show in spot rates. Since late February:
Far East → US West Coast rates are up 50%+
Far East → US East Coast rates have climbed around 44%

For this week’s logistics market update, the transpacific market is adjusting to a changing set of cost and operational factors tied largely to higher fuel prices and evolving vessel routings. Recent developments in the Middle East are influencing bunker costs and availability, prompting carriers to take steps to manage expenses and maintain service reliability. This update outlines the current fuel situation, expected surcharge activity, and early shifts in capacity and pricing so shippers can plan accordingly.

For this week’s Transpacific ocean freight market update, we attended the TPM conference –– read on for our key takeaways.

Technology & AI Take Center Stage

One of the biggest themes coming out of this year’s TPM conference is how quickly the logistics industry is evolving. Since the pandemic, there’s been a major shift toward digital tools—especially customer self-service platforms and real-time shipment visibility.

Looking ahead, technology investment isn’t just a nice-to-have—it’s becoming the main way forwarders stay competitive. In 2026, AI is expected to play a major role in improving efficiency and decision-making. For larger NVOs, competition is no longer just about rates; it’s increasingly about system capabilities and overall tech strength.

The transpacific market continues to take its cues from Washington, as U.S. tariff policy remains the biggest driver of uncertainty across global trade lanes.

Tariff Developments

On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6–3 ruling that struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), stating the administration lacked the authority to implement them. As a result, a wide range of tariffs introduced over the past 10 months — including “reciprocal” duties of up to 34% on certain Chinese imports — are no longer valid.

For the transpacific ocean rate logistics market update, the anticipated spot market slide has paused this week. Current rate levels are now sitting close to and in some cases below carrier break-even points across U.S. and Canada lanes. In response, carriers have begun aggressively pulling capacity from the market. Blank sailings increased starting Week 07 and are expected to peak in Week 09. We expect to see capacity reductions of 50% – 60% depending on the trade lane.

Planned February 1st General Rate Increases have largely been abandoned, with carriers extending current rate levels through the end of February. These spot rates are now below many existing contract levels, creating attractive short-term opportunities for shippers.

Rate declines have slowed compared to prior weeks, signaling that capacity is beginning to tighten. Ocean carriers’ rolling of containers remains a concern, particularly out of South China. The market is experiencing significant rollovers in Weeks 6–7, which may impact select services from Ningbo and Shanghai and surrounding ports. To manage supply during Chinese New Year (2/17/26 – 2/24/26), multiple carriers are blanking sailings for Weeks 8–9, on both U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast routes.

For the transpacific ocean rate logistics market update, carriers continue to reduce spot rates ahead of the Chinese New Year as they build roll pools and manage soft U.S. demand. Spot offers for volume cargo are now reaching $1,700 per 40’ to the U.S. West Coast and $2,500 per 40’ to the U.S. East Coast.

Planned February 1st General Rate Increases have largely been abandoned, with carriers extending current rate levels through the end of February. These spot rates are now below many existing contract levels, creating attractive short-term opportunities for shippers.

Rate declines have slowed compared to prior weeks, signaling that capacity is beginning to tighten. Ocean carriers’ rolling of containers remains a concern, particularly out of South China. The market is experiencing significant rollovers in Weeks 6–7, which may impact select services from Ningbo and Shanghai and surrounding ports. To manage supply during Chinese New Year (2/17/26 – 2/24/26), multiple carriers are blanking sailings for Weeks 8–9, on both U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast routes.

After peaking just before the New Year, transpacific spot rates have corrected quickly over the past few weeks. Prices have now slipped back to late-December levels, confirming that the January 1 and January 15 GRIs did not hold.

Demand ahead of Chinese New Year has also come in softer than expected. Many shippers advanced production into December to avoid possible Lunar New Year rate hikes, and Chinese factories were able to handle this without strain due to ample available capacity.

With carriers having already added extra space ahead of the holiday, a February 1 GRI looks unlikely. Current rate levels are expected to remain in place through at least February 14.

Following the unsuccessful General Rate Increase earlier this month, carriers have maintained rate increases effective as of December 15th, lifting US West Coast spot rates to approximately $2,100 – $2300 per 40’. With a higher number of blank sailings scheduled toward the end of December, carriers appear better positioned to sustain these levels than in prior attempts.

Despite this manipulation, market sentiment remains cautious. Many shippers continue to wait for potential softening before committing to booking shipments. On the US East Coast, December capacity has been less affected by blank sailings, and carriers remain open to offering bullet rates for volume cargo.

Looking into January, conditions may shift. Carriers report improved volume forecasts from U.S. importers ahead of Chinese New Year (mid-February). To support a planned $1,000/40’ GRI effective January 1st, additional USEC blank sailings have already been announced for early January.

Following the unsuccessful General Rate Increase earlier this month, carriers have maintained rate increases effective as of December 15th, lifting US West Coast spot rates to approximately $2,100 – $2300 per 40’. With a higher number of blank sailings scheduled toward the end of December, carriers appear better positioned to sustain these levels than in prior attempts.

Despite this manipulation, market sentiment remains cautious. Many shippers continue to wait for potential softening before committing to booking shipments. On the US East Coast, December capacity has been less affected by blank sailings, and carriers remain open to offering bullet rates for volume cargo.

Looking into January, conditions may shift. Carriers report improved volume forecasts from U.S. importers ahead of Chinese New Year (mid-February). To support a planned $1,000/40’ GRI effective January 1st, additional USEC blank sailings have already been announced for early January.